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I am a multimedia nut, journalism, photography, videography, radio broadcasting and production. I’ve done it all, but I love to write and have a lot to say. I live in the Chicagoland area now and have always had an extreme love and passion for the Chicago Bears
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Written by Brett Solesky
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Monday, 08 March 2010 18:25 |
I've been in favor of the idea of trading TE Greg Olsen since the day after Ron Turner was fired and I'm still in favor of the idea today. Nothing has changed in fact I'm even more in favor of it after the recent free agency developments from last Friday. I stated my stance on the Olsen trade here back on January 10th and the trade talk has taken on a mind of it's own since.
The logic for trading Olsen still stands and the strength of my argument is becoming even more apparent with combine and draft and the way free agency morphed. This is when the heat and the hype begins to pick up and more importantly it's when draft gurus go full throttle. With the NFL combine now completed and most of the best players available in the 2010 draft already having been picked over with a fine tooth comb the top players available are becoming clear. The value of this draft and the depth of the draft is also becoming clear and the idea of trading Greg Olsen is making even more sense by the day.
With that in mind it's important we go over a couple of brief scenarios the Bears may consider if they do trade Olsen.
First and foremost the Bears need to land at a minimum a second round pick, preferably an early second round pick, but a mid second round pick would do as well. Ideally a late first round pick, but that may be stretching a tad, for fun though let's say from about the 25th overall pick to about the 52nd overall pick in the draft would do. I say 52nd overall pick because that just happens to represent the pick the Patriots hold, which is their third second round pick of the draft. Plus the idea of landing one of essentially the top-50 prospects in the NFL draft is even more reason to consider trading Olsen. Ideally the Bears would land a pick somewhere in the 40s which would greatly enhance their chances of landing a great player at a position of need, assuming the Bears are smart enough to scout that player and make that draft pick happen, (that's another debate to have all together for another time). So we are assuming the Bears can get maximum value for that pick that lands them somewhere in the 40s of the NFL draft.
Now based on that assumption and the idea that the Bears get that solid of a second round pick for Olsen it helps to know what the likelihood is that the Bears can fill one of their positions of need with that pick. First and foremost the thing to recognize is what the Bears' needs are, most fans know relatively off the top of their head, pass rusher (DE), safety, O-Line are the three most immediate needs the Bears are facing. Even with the addition of Peppers the Bears would be wise to target another pass rusher with the likelihood that Alex Brown is going to begin the downside of his career, plus the Bears will be losing two players off of the 2009 roster with Ogunleye and the late Gaines Adams no longer on the roster.
Anyway the key here is looking at the draft and the talent that's available and the prospects that are likely to go where based on other teams' needs. Right now the draft top-50 players in the draft are fairly set and the break down of those 50-players favors the Bears.
The Top-50 breaks down this way
Four QBs
Four RBs
Five WRs
Six OTs
Three TEs
Two interior OL
Six DTs
Six DEs
Four OLBs
Two ILBs
Three Safeties
Five CBs
The next 10 just for the sake of argument:
Zero QBs,
Two WRs,
One RB
One TE
One OT
Two DE pass rusher types
One Corner
Two Safeties
Now based on that break down the Bears have a shot at landing a very good player because of how the draft will likely shape up. Not all of the best pass rushers will be off the board by the time the Bears select if they happen to trade Olsen, not all of the best O-Linemen will be off the board by the time the Bears select meaning they likelihood of them landing one of those players is pretty high.
Now obviously a Top-20 prospect isn't going to fall all the way to the Bears but there are a fairly equal amount of pass rushers O-Linemen and safeties that are going to split between the Top-20 and the Top-50. So there is an equal chance the Bears could land an impact player at either safety or OT. DE may not be as deep as a focus with the addition of Peppers, that all depends on what type of player is available and where.
A couple players who fit into the mold of a second round prospect the Bears would be in the market for
 OT Vladimir Ducasse UMass
OT Charles Brown USC
OT Rodger Saffold Indiana
DE Corey Wootton Northwestern
DE Ricky Sapp Clemson
S Chad Jones LSU
S Nate Allen South Florida
The likelihood has decreased that the Bears wouldn't take a pass rusher type until the later rounds of the draft and focus their attention more towards the O-Line and free safety spot with the signing of Julius Peppers. But the good news is the Bears do have more flexibility should they be in position to draft in the second round.
The next position of immediate need with the signings would be another stand out CB. Charles Tillman is on the down side of his career, Nathan Vasher likely doesn't even belong on the roster and shouldn't be on the roster beyond 2010 and Zach Bowman is merely adequate. If the Bears were to shift their focus to a CB possibility the next prospects in the range the Bears might consider at CB are:
Dominique Franks Oklahoma
Kyle Wilson Boise State
Perrish Cox Oklahoma State
Patrick Robinson Florida State
As things change I'll be sure to tweak the article here and there but overall I expect this list to stay pretty much the way it was written. Ideally though you'd like to think the Bears aren't done in free agency and would be able to go after a safety or a CB before the draft there by altering this scenario even further.
Even with the Bears playing down the talk of not trading Greg Olsen at all, I think that has more to do with the fact that they aren't anywhere near close to the draft. As they get closer to the draft the market for Olsen will likely heat up as the trade market always seems to do this time of year. That I think is the most important note to consider going forward over the next 45 days leading up to the draft, the market may seem quiet now, but things always change.
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